Platinum Paradox: Record Surge or a Precursor to a Pullback?

Platinum prices soared 27–28% in June 2025, reaching $1,415/oz—a level last seen in 2014. The rally stems from persistent supply deficits and investor shifts away from gold. Yet technical indicators flash warning signs: prices now trade 30% above the 50-day moving average, a pattern reminiscent of early 2008 before a 40% collapse.

The futures market suggests tempered bullishness, with April and October 2026 contracts in contango. Non-commercial traders trimmed net-long positions by 3,700 contracts in a week, signaling potential exhaustion.

Fundamentals tell a different story. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a 966k oz deficit for 2025, extending through 2029. South African mining output dropped 12–13%, while Chinese jewelry demand jumped 26% in Q1 as the gold-to-platinum ratio hit its highest since 2015.